Archive for December, 2008

Why Are Trend Forecasts Always So “Hard”?

The old tongue-in-cheek saying goes that forecasting is very hard (difficult), especially when it involves the future.

In the course of my job here at Kahuna Content, I spend a considerable amount of time reading cultural and social trend forecasts.  Like anything else, some are great and others a lot less great.  In their quality they vary.  But one way they don’t vary is this.  In all of them I’ve read lately, I’m amazed that they forecast changes in society that are based on changes in the “hard” stuff, the technology; in other words its the hardware (technology) that influences the “software” (people).  It’s a bit disheartening, from a human standpoint that is.

Shouldn’t it be the other way around?

And shouldn’t other “uncontrollable” forces in the environment be critical factors in these trend forecasts?  Factors like government and economy can have just as much effect upon cultural and social trends as technology, perhaps even more.  This is an area which forms a foundation of some of my work.  I’ll be writing more on this in future.

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Economic Warfare: Is this the Real Sneezing Butterfly?

I discovered an interesting school yesterday, l’Ecole de Guerre Economique, or The School of Economic Warfare in Paris, France.  “A curious educational institution,” I thought.  And as I perused their course offerings I found myself wanting to attend this institution, but alas I am bound to my office here in the U.S.

Although I did not find it stated as such on their website, it seems that the objective of this school is to produce managers who will be adept at furthering the interests of French business.  Click through to this post for a similar opinion.   From a review of the school’s website, one can conclude that through an interdisciplinary approach which is based in economics, geopolitics, military policy, and national cultures, the school is well-able to produce managers who could carry out that objective.  Their approach is wholistic, which arouses the ever-latent student in my brain.

A complete review of their offerings and educational philosophy is, of course, beyond the scope of this post, but as I read over this list of course offerings, and the list of their research studies available for immediate download, I couldn’t help but think of that sneezing butterfly in Thailand.  You know, a butterfly sneezes in Thailand, which moves a blade grass, which attracts the attention of a tiger, which informs the hunter of the tiger’s location, ad infinitum until the final result is something seemingly unrelated like a woman in Duluth, Minnesota writing a blog post about how much she dislikes her SUV.

Instead of that mythical butterfly, do the tactics of economic warfare among nations actually drive the winds of change?  Does economic warfare among nations cause the Minnesotan to talk trash about her SUV on some blog? And does economic warfare affect your business? Check out the School’s website and decide for yourself.  (Here is a link to the English-translated version of the website.)

Bon Lirant!

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Managerial Flux, Change is the Only Certainty?

“They” say that the only thing that is certain is change.  Let’s discuss.

I literally wrote the book on web competitive intelligence.

In 2001, I wrote “Dangerous Competition: Critical Issues in eCompetitive Intelligence Analysis.”  This book was the first of its kind to look at the “New Economy,” as it was called then, from the perspective of competitive analysis.

Perusing some pages of the book the other day I came across the idea of allowing employees to get closer to customers.  Very relevant given the orientation of today’s social media intiatives.  “Giving employees full access to company information means that much present management must change.”  (p 48)  Now, of course, full information might not be such a great idea.  But the concept I was putting forth there was that of allowing employees to solve problems for customers and giving those employees the necessary info to do so.  This I was discussing from within the context of ecommerce, seven years ago.  And I was discussing it as an element of competitive analysis, for the analyst to observe to what degree did his competitors do this?

Seems that things really haven’t changed much in that time.  In social media strategy, we’re still discussing how the corporation should allow its employees access to info so that they can solve customers’ problems.  (Jeremy Wright talks about this concept heavity in Blog Marketing.)  So, in web business initiatives, managerial flux is still needed. After seven years.

So how is change the only thing that is certain?

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The Evolution of Conversation

Just as DNA evolves, to transform living organisms, helping them adapt to their enviroment, so does conversation.  And DNA evolution affects other DNA.  As organism evolve, they impact other organisms around them.  Likewise with conversation.

The conversations appearing now within social media, a virtual world, modify each other, just as they do in the physical world.  Yet, in social media, there aren’t the “checks and balances” that occur within normal conversation in the physical world.  Check and balances such as facial expressions or body language augment what is being said, so that the receiver may use those cues to help put the verbal communication in context, evaluating its sincerity or even its veractiy.

This augmented communication doesn’t appear in social media, by and large.

This lack of augmentation leaves the door open for the creation of claims which have no basis, for fabrication, for lying.  (Sort of like in a political campaign. :-) )  When aimed at a company or even an individual, such communication can have devastating results, with little or no recourse thanks to the anonymous nature of the medium.

This is a threat, which I’ll call “mutant conversation,” against which all companies must guard.  The protection of their reputation is priceless, and must not be minimized.  What steps must be taken in this pursuit?  There are many, such as this one.  But the first step is in the realization of the threat.

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