Time to think a little bit. Have you been listening a lot lately to wanna-be presidential candidates blame the cost of energy on the government? Of course, you have. Who hasn’t listened to them do one of the things they do best. Yet, these same candidates don’t blame themselves as part of the government. No, they blame the head of the government. It’s always easy to do that. What’s this got to do with social media? Don’t worry. I’ll get to it.
It’s always quite amazing that every four years the price of oil is blamed on the American administration, no matter who happens to be sitting at 1600 Pennsylvania. Instead of relying on invective and conjecture, by self-serving and self-interested politicians, I decided to do a little research myself. Well, it’s what I do for a living and it comes quite naturally.
What’s really causing the rise in oil prices?
First, let’s set aside what’s been happening this year so far. We’re less than five months into 2008 and in terms of reliable research to assign cause, five months of a partially completed year just aren’t going to lend any credibility to the research. Including the last four and one-half months, and the volatility of oil in that period, in the research would only emulate what the pols are currently doing which is trying to develop a trend from an aberration. No, I don’t want to be that self-serving. Let’s, instead, look at some reliable data collected over a longer period of time, a true trend, a time by which we can establish a pattern.
The Research
I looked at the historical price of crude over the ten year period of 1997-2007. You can see the figures I used, which were all adjusted for inflation, by clicking through to this site, InflationData.com for the historic price of oil and Chinability.com for the historic GDP of China. Why did I pick the GDP of China? Sorry, but I suspect they might be the cause. Presumptive? From a pure research standpoint, perhaps. But a theory must start somewhere.
Crunch the numbers along with me. Here’s what I calculated:
The Results
Real Annual Growth Rates 1997 – 2007: Oil – 10.5%. Chinese GDP – 13%. (Rounded)
Gee whiz. Could it be that the industrialization of this huge country is driving the price of oil? I say yes. And it certainly sounds a lot more believable than what self-serving candidates are telling me is the cause of high oil prices.
What’s all this got to do with social media?
Okay. So here’s the take-away. Social media, like the one you’re reading now, can be a great weapon in the war against falsehood. Business needs to use these media to get the real story out, to educate the public against traditional media and political sensationalism created to either sell ads or to get an empty-headed, inexperienced, self-serving, appeasing, pandering poser into the most powerful office in the world. (Name your own bubble head.)
Business can die by the truth, and keep it to themselves. Or business can live by the truth, and share it with others. The choice is, of course, theirs.
